The Philadelphia Phillies face an intriguing yet risky decision this offseason: exploring a trade for Cardinals star third baseman. While his resume is undeniably impressive, acquiring Arenado would be a misstep for the Phillies organization.
The MLB offseason is heating up, with rumors swirling as teams assess trades and free-agent signings ahead of the Winter Meetings (Dec. 9-12). For the Phillies, coming off a disappointing end to their 2024 campaign, strategic roster moves are crucial to contend in 2025. But while Arenado may seem like a tempting target, the cost and risks outweigh the potential rewards.
Arenado’s Elite Career—and Recent Decline
Nolan Arenado is a proven superstar, boasting a decade of excellence. The 33-year-old is a 10-time Gold Glove winner, six-time Platinum Glove recipient, and five-time Silver Slugger. His offensive production includes a career .285 batting average, 341 home runs, and 1,132 RBIs over 12 seasons. Arenado’s defensive prowess also ranks him among the best third basemen in MLB history.
However, his recent performance raises concerns. In 2023, Arenado hit .266, a drop from his peak form. In 2024, his production slipped further, managing just 16 home runs and 71 RBIs. With three years and $74 million remaining on his contract—and his 34th birthday approaching in April—the Phillies would be investing heavily in a player whose best years may be behind him.
The Cost to Acquire Arenado
Beyond the financial commitment, trading for Arenado would require the Phillies to part with top prospects or valuable young players. Given the Cardinals’ rebuilding priorities, Philadelphia would likely need to offer a significant package. Such a move could disrupt the team’s long-term plans, especially when the Phillies already have third-base options in Alec Bohm and rising prospect Aidan Miller.
Bohm, still developing as a consistent contributor, offers youth and upside at a fraction of Arenado’s cost. Meanwhile, Miller, one of the organization’s top prospects, could be the future of the position.
A Risk Not Worth Taking
As Will Leitch of MLB.com noted, Arenado could seem like a strong fit for the Phillies. But with his age, declining production, and hefty contract, the risks are too high. Investing in Arenado would also limit the team’s financial flexibility for addressing other roster needs.
For a franchise with championship aspirations, the smarter path is to focus on younger, more affordable talent and avoid overpaying for an aging star. While Arenado’s career accomplishments are remarkable, he’s not the answer to the Phillies’ future success.
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