The New York Mets are treading cautiously regarding the free-agent market this offseason, especially in the case of Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. Though Bieber is a decorated pitcher, his recent Tommy John surgery and a drop in performance have raised concerns for potential suitors like the Mets.
The Mets have previously taken calculated risks with pitchers coming off inconsistent years, such as Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, who were signed despite recent struggles. While Manaea’s performance issues were addressed through a modified pitch arsenal, Severino’s challenge involved fixing pitch-tipping tendencies and managing his durability. These calculated risks demonstrate the Mets’ strategy of targeting players with past success but who might need careful handling or adjustments to return to form.
Signing Bieber, however, would involve a more complex gamble. His surgery and injury history pose significant uncertainty, making it unlikely he’d agree to a deeply discounted contract. The Mets would need to consider a deal like the one the Milwaukee Brewers offered Brandon Woodruff, who, despite an extensive injury history, signed an incentivized contract with structured team options. Yet Bieber’s case differs because his current health is a bigger question mark, and there’s no guarantee he would return to his pre-injury form.
Bieber’s trajectory before the injury was inconsistent, with declining strikeouts and a lower win total (6-6) in 2023 with a 3.80 ERA. Considering Bieber’s lack of durability over the years, a big financial commitment might not align with the Mets’ current priorities.
The Mets need to manage their payroll wisely to avoid the risk of another season relying heavily on luck and rehabilitation. Given the stakes, the Mets seem inclined to look elsewhere in the free-agent market rather than take the risk of adding Bieber to their rotation.
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