The Atlanta Braves made a surprising decision not to start their ace Chris Sale in the critical first game of their series against the New York Mets on Tuesday. Instead, Sale has been scheduled to pitch on Wednesday. Here are three key reasons behind this high-risk move by the Braves, as they fight to stay in the playoff race.
As the final week of the MLB regular season kicks off, the Braves find themselves in an unfamiliar spot—chasing a playoff position. With an 85-71 record, they are currently one-and-a-half games behind the Diamondbacks and two games behind the Mets, with only six games left. A crucial series against the Mets begins today, with the winner potentially securing a tiebreaker in case of a tied record at the end of the season.
Many believed that starting Chris Sale on Tuesday would give the Braves a better shot at sweeping the series, allowing them to control their own playoff fate. A sweep would be the only surefire way to guarantee their playoff chances without relying on other teams to falter. If they don’t sweep, Atlanta would need to rely on the Diamondbacks or Mets to lose additional games.
A 5-1 week would likely secure a playoff berth for Atlanta, but this is no small task, especially considering the caliber of their opponents. The Braves finish the season against Kansas City, while the Mets face Milwaukee and Arizona plays both San Francisco and San Diego. To have Sale pitch twice this week could give the Braves the edge they need. However, manager Brian Snitker and his staff opted to keep Spencer Schwellenbach on the mound for the series opener and hold Sale for Wednesday’s game instead.
While this decision surprised many, it’s driven by three critical factors:
1. Chris Sale’s Recent Decline in Velocity
Sale has been a revelation for the Braves this season, returning to ace form and even emerging as a leading contender for the NL Cy Young Award. His fastball has averaged 94.8 mph, marking his best velocity since 2018. However, in his last four starts, Sale’s velocity has dipped to 93.8 mph, signaling potential fatigue as the long season takes its toll.
While Sale has still been effective, the Braves have noticed the drop-off. During his last start against Cincinnati, he hit a season-low 92.7 mph on the radar gun, raising concerns about his readiness. Sale’s workload this year is significantly higher than in previous seasons, leading the Braves to give him an extra day of rest in hopes of restoring his dominant stuff for a critical Wednesday start against the Mets.
2. Prioritizing a Win Against the Mets
The Braves understand the importance of winning the series against New York. Securing the tiebreaker could be crucial in determining their playoff fate. By resting Sale an extra day, the Braves are betting on a stronger, more effective outing from their ace on Wednesday. This move prioritizes a fresh Sale in a must-win game over the potential benefits of having him pitch twice in the week, hoping that extra rest will help him regain his top form for the most important match.
3. Spencer Schwellenbach’s Emergence as a Reliable Option
The decision to delay Sale’s start is made easier by the impressive performance of rookie Spencer Schwellenbach. While his debut was shaky, Schwellenbach has quickly developed into one of the Braves’ most reliable starters. Since June 12th, he has consistently ranked among the top MLB starters in key metrics, proving he can handle high-stakes games.
Over his last 10 starts, Schwellenbach has posted a 2.75 ERA, 29.1% strikeout rate, and a 2.86 FIP, even facing tough competition like the Phillies and Dodgers. His ability to deliver in critical moments gives the Braves confidence to trust him in Tuesday’s opener and potentially Game 162 if needed.
As the Braves head into the final stretch, they are gambling on Chris Sale’s recovery and Schwellenbach’s reliability. Time will tell if this strategy pays off, but with the postseason hanging in the balance, every decision carries significant weight.
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