Pitching coach Matt Blake has implemented a system that relies heavily on extracting value from low-cost players, allowing the Yankees to allocate funds elsewhere. This approach works well until injuries strike, forcing the team to rely on free agents and waiver claims to fill the gaps.
Caleb Ferguson: Struggling to Contribute
The Yankees acquired Caleb Ferguson from the Los Angeles Dodgers this past offseason, hoping he would be a key component in the bullpen. After posting a 3.43 ERA last season across 61 innings, Ferguson has arguably been the team’s worst bullpen piece this year.
Over 28 innings, Ferguson has a 5.46 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 11.25 strikeouts per nine innings, a 63.5% left-on-base rate, and a 43.8% ground ball rate. Both his home run and walk rates have spiked this season, indicating a troubling trend.
Statistical Struggles and Pitching Issues
Ferguson ranks in the 79th percentile for strikeout rate but falls below average in most other statistics, including a 4.56 expected ERA and a .257 expected batting average. Opposing hitters are thriving against his four-seam fastball, which he throws 55.7% of the time.
Hitters are batting .282 against his four-seamer with a .563 slugging percentage. Like Carlos Rodon, Ferguson’s fastball has become a liability, necessitating a change. Although his cutter has been effective, producing a .071 batting average, his slurve and sinker are being hit hard.
Velocity Drop and Pitch Effectiveness
Notably, Ferguson’s four-seam fastball has lost 2 mph in velocity compared to 2023, a significant drop that likely contributes to its ineffectiveness. Despite getting more movement than during his time with the Dodgers, batters are finding it easier to hit.
Looking Ahead: Adjustments and Returns
The Yankees need much more from the 28-year-old Ferguson, who will be a free agent after the 2024 season. While bringing him back long-term seems unwise, Blake must find a way to extract value for the remainder of the season, especially as the team deals with multiple injuries.
The Yankees are hopeful for the return of Scott Effross, Lou Trivino, and Ian Hamilton, but by the time they are back in action, the Yankees could be in a tough position, struggling to climb out of a deficit in the AL East.
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