The Cincinnati Reds (63-68) are facing another injury blow as they prepare for a three-game series against the Oakland A’s. The 2024 season has been riddled with injuries, particularly among their pitching rotation. The Reds’ rotation, which initially featured Frankie Montas, Hunter Greene, Nick Martinez, Andrew Abbott, and Graham Ashcraft, has been decimated. Montas was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers at the deadline, while Greene, Abbott, and Ashcraft are all dealing with injuries. Martinez, who was moved to the bullpen, had to return to the rotation due to these setbacks. Nick Lodolo has also spent time on the injured list, adding to the team’s struggles.
Hunter Greene, the Reds’ 25-year-old ace, recently sought a second opinion after experiencing elbow inflammation following his August 13 start. Given that Greene missed the entire 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery, the Reds approached the situation with caution. Fortunately, an MRI revealed that his repaired ulnar cruciate ligament was in great condition, with the inflammation stemming from a bruise. Initially, the hope was that Greene could return to pitching by the end of the week, but that timeline has now been extended by about two weeks to allow the inflammation to subside. Even then, Greene would need to undergo a rehab start before rejoining the rotation, leaving him with just a small window of time to pitch before the season ends.
With only five weeks remaining in the season, the Reds must consider whether it’s worth bringing Greene back at all. As of Monday, August 26, the Brewers’ magic number to eliminate the Reds from the NL Central race is just 20. The Reds are also 7.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot, with 31 games left. Given the situation, the risks of bringing Greene back might outweigh the benefits. Even if his injury is just inflammation, what would the team gain from having Greene pitch two or three more times in a season that’s nearly lost?
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The Reds have struggled to recover from a dismal 9-18 record in May. Since then, they’ve hovered around .500, going 38-37, and were 16-14 before May. Despite their efforts, injuries have derailed their season. In terms of offense, the Reds have had 13 players who have appeared in at least 45 games, but five of them have a negative bWAR, and three more have less than 1.0 bWAR. Will Benson leads the team with a -1.1 bWAR over 346 plate appearances, the sixth-most on the team. Meanwhile, 16 pitchers have appeared in at least 15 games, with two posting negative bWAR and 10 more with less than 1.0 bWAR.
Given these challenges, Greene might push to return and pitch a few more games, especially considering his recent performance. Greene has been dominant in his last eight starts, going 4-1 with a 1.07 ERA and a 0.751 WHIP, positioning himself in the Cy Young conversation. For the season, he’s 9-4 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.019 WHIP, leading all of baseball with 5.8 hits per nine innings. However, with the Reds’ playoff hopes all but extinguished—FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference give them just a 0.4% chance of making the playoffs—it might be time for the team to regroup, focus on what they have for 2025, and aim to enter next season at full strength.
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