NBA free agency isn’t just about acquiring top talent; it’s also about securing them at reasonable rates. But what exactly defines “reasonable”?
In a recent article for Forbes, I projected production value by multiplying a player’s Estimated Wins (EW) by the cost of a win in 2024-25, estimated at $3.4 million. While this calculation isn’t flawless, it provides a useful framework for analysis, a key aspect of contract negotiations.
Interestingly, this method revealed that six of the seven worst contracts so far have been signed by Eastern Conference teams, which is often seen as the weaker conference. The only Western Conference team on this list is the Sacramento Kings’ division rival, the Los Angeles Lakers.
This dubious distinction doesn’t come from their contract with the 39-year-old LeBron James. Instead, it’s the four-year, $32 million deal they signed with Max Christie (per Spotrac). According to Dunks & Threes, Christie had a negative EW of -1.1, indicating he was a net negative to his team last year.
While this analysis isn’t definitive, it suggests Christie’s past performance doesn’t justify his new salary. However, Christie is young and has potential for growth, which could make this contract more reasonable if he develops into a solid role player.
The Formula Doesn’t Favor Malik Monk, but It Praises LeBron James
Another contract that didn’t fare well in this analysis is the four-year, $76 million extension the Kings gave to Malik Monk. Based on his EW, Monk should be earning $9.9 million next year, significantly less than the average annual value of his new contract.
This is intriguing, considering many believe Monk took a pay cut to stay with the Kings. The disparity can be partly attributed to the formula’s limitations and Monk’s end-of-season injury, which affected his EW total. Additionally, it could indicate that Monk’s player archetype (a non-star combo guard) isn’t highly valued. The truth likely lies somewhere in between.
Kings’ Olympic Competitors
As the Kings navigate these contract challenges, they also celebrate their players competing in the 2024 Olympic Games. This international stage provides a valuable opportunity for these athletes to showcase their skills and bring experience back to the team, contributing to the Kings’ ongoing development and success.
By balancing the intricacies of contract negotiations with player development and international competition, the Kings aim to build a strong foundation for future success in the NBA.
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