The Minnesota Twins trail the Cleveland Guardians by 4 ½ games at the All-Star break. Overcoming the formidable division leaders in the second half will be no easy task, but here’s why the Twins are capable of making it happen—and will.
Echoes of 2006
The 2024 AL Central race is reminiscent of the 2006 season. That year, the Twins went on an impressive run to reach 96 wins after a slow start. Despite this, they struggled all summer to gain ground on the division-leading Tigers, who were on a nearly 100-win pace.
One unforgettable stretch from June 8 to June 30 saw the Twins win 18 of 20 games but only gain half a game in the standings. Throughout July and into August, Minnesota continued to win series but couldn’t significantly dent their division deficit, which hovered between nine and 12 games.
In mid-August, the Tigers began to falter. Detroit, which had peaked at 40 games above .500 and seemed on pace for 110 wins, started to decline. Minnesota seized the opportunity. In their final 50 games, the Tigers went 19-31, while the Twins went 30-20, overcoming a double-digit deficit to win the division on the final day. For those who weren’t around to witness it, it was wild.
This year, I believe history will repeat itself in the Central. It might not be as dramatic, but Minnesota is the better team, and over the course of a long MLB season, the best team tends to come out on top.
Three Reasons for Optimism
1. Cleveland’s Overperformance
The Guardians have the best record in the American League, but a deeper look at their success reveals significant luck. The MLB Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter, which measures a team’s “luck” factor by comparing their performance to simulations, recently pegged Cleveland as the luckiest team in baseball by a wide margin.
- They rank 10th in scoring but 23rd in xwOBA.
- Their hitters are 10th in home runs but last in average home run distance.
- Their pitchers rank 8th in ERA but 15th in FIP, with the 8th-lowest BABIP and the 2nd-highest strand rate.
These stats suggest Cleveland’s success may not be sustainable. In contrast, the Twins have been relatively luck-neutral or unlucky according to most metrics. The Guardians don’t need to collapse like the 2006 Tigers for the Twins to catch up; they just need to play around .500 ball for an extended period. With a 6-7 record in July, this may already be happening.
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2. Minnesota’s Deep and Relentless Lineup
Minnesota’s offense has evolved into one of the league’s best. They’ve replaced underperformers like Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien, added key players like José Miranda and Brooks Lee, and seen significant improvements from Carlos Santana, Byron Buxton, and Manuel Margot.
At the heart of their lineup is Carlos Correa, the team MVP, whose leadership and performance have been critical. Despite a recent plantar fasciitis diagnosis, reports suggest it’s less serious than last year.
The Twins’ offensive success is sustainable: they consistently make contact and hit the ball hard. They rank eighth in xwOBA for the season and first in the American League in wOBA, wRC+, and position player fWAR over the past two months.
3. Solid Pitching
Both teams have faced challenges with their pitching rotations. Cleveland’s ace Shane Bieber is out for the season, while Pablo López hasn’t pitched like a No. 1 starter. However, López’s underlying metrics suggest positive regression: his 5.11 ERA contrasts with a 3.43 xERA and a 3.22 xFIP. His career-low strand rate and career-high home-run rate on fly balls indicate he’s pitching better than his numbers show.
The Twins have depth with Joe Ryan, a borderline All-Star in the first half, and Bailey Ober, who has been their best starter recently. Both teams have strong bullpens, but Minnesota’s could match or outshine Cleveland’s, especially if Brock Stewart returns and the front office makes strategic moves in August or September.
The Importance of Winning the Division
Both teams are likely to make the playoffs, but winning the division can mean the difference between a home or away series—or even a first-round bye. While playoff outcomes can be unpredictable, the Twins aim to win the Central for the fourth time in six years. To do so, they must outperform Cleveland over the remaining 66 games, a challenge they are fully capable of meeting.
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