Reveals Why Team’s Decision For Underusing One Offensive Weapon…
The Pittsburgh Pirates, currently in the wild card race despite a struggling offense, could significantly benefit from incorporating more stolen bases into their game plan. Solid starting pitching and a relatively weaker National League have kept the Pirates competitive, but as the trade deadline approaches, all contending teams are expected to make moves. General Manager Ben Cherington has emphasized the importance of internal improvements while also exploring potential trades. In the meantime, the stolen base could serve as a valuable asset. Facing teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds, known for their aggressive base running, has highlighted the potential benefits of this strategy.
Pirates Underusing the Stolen Base
The Pirates rank near the bottom of the National League in key offensive metrics. They’re 14th in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, 13th in runs scored, home runs, and doubles, and 12th in stolen bases. This low ranking in steals is partly due to their struggle to get on base. As the saying goes, “you can’t steal first base.”
Despite this, the running game has not been a focus. Whether this is due to manager Derek Shelton’s philosophy or directives from the front office is unclear. In modern baseball, the manager’s role often involves executing the front office’s vision, so it’s not fair to place all the blame on Shelton.
The Analytical Perspective
One of the reasons Shelton was hired was his embrace of analytics. Sabermetricians have often downplayed the value of stolen bases, arguing that unless you have an exceptional base stealer like Rickey Henderson or Vince Coleman, stealing bases is not beneficial. The logic is that outs are precious, and over the long term, a caught stealing is more detrimental than a successful steal is beneficial. A base stealer needs a success rate of around 70% to positively impact their team’s run production.
According to FanGraphs, the effectiveness of a stolen base is measured by Weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB). An average wSB is zero, with values above indicating runs created and below indicating a loss.
The Impact of Stolen Bases on the Pirates
As of Monday, the Pirates have stolen 41 bases and been caught eight times, resulting in a team wSB of 1.1, despite an 83.7% success rate. This suggests that their running game has added just one run all season, supporting the theory that stealing bases might not be worthwhile. However, their high success rate indicates they could be better at it than they realize.
For instance, in 1976, the Oakland Athletics set an American League record with 341 steals, leading to a wSB of 22.0. A similar performance would be invaluable for the current Pirates, who often play close games.
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Historical Context
The statistics don’t capture the psychological impact of the stolen base on pitchers and defenses. In the 1979 World Series, the threat of stolen bases influenced the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching strategy, benefiting the Pirates’ hitters. Although the Pirates didn’t successfully steal a base in that series, the mere threat altered the Orioles’ approach.
The Last Word
The Pirates have tried various strategies to improve their offense, from sending Henry Davis and Jack Suwinski to the minors to calling up speedster Ji Hwan Bae, who then landed on the injured list. Shelton has experimented with different lineups. Given their struggles, the Pirates have little to lose by adding the stolen base to their offensive toolkit.
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