It has been seven years since the Minnesota Twins selected Royce Lewis with the number one overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft. Now, let’s look back to determine whether the Twins’ front office made the right choice.
The MLB Draft is a high-stakes endeavor that combines talent evaluation and strategic foresight, particularly when a team holds the number one overall pick. In 2017, the Minnesota Twins, under a new front office, had to identify the best player available. They chose Royce Lewis, a dynamic shortstop from JSerra Catholic High School in San Juan Capistrano, California. Three years into his big-league career, it’s time to evaluate the Twins’ decision and see how it compares to the other prospects available that year.
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Royce Lewis was not the consensus top pick for the 2017 MLB Draft. Experts like Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis from MLB.com speculated that the Twins might select Louisville’s two-way phenom Brendan McKay. John Manuel of Baseball America projected Kyle Wright, the top college pitching prospect from Vanderbilt, as their pick. ESPN’s Keith Law also had the Twins leaning towards Wright, with the caveat that they were considering four players: McKay, high school pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Hunter Greene, and Lewis. Despite the talented pool, Lewis wasn’t widely projected as the first overall pick.
Lewis stood out due to his compelling mix of tools and intangibles. Scouts were impressed by his athleticism, speed, smooth fielding, and compact swing, which hinted at future power potential. His work ethic and positive attitude were also praised, marking him as a player likely to maximize his abilities. These attributes made him a rare five-tool player, potentially a franchise cornerstone.
Fast-forwarding to the present, Lewis has progressed steadily through the Twins’ minor league system, consistently ranking as a top prospect. Entering his rookie season, he was a consensus top-50 prospect, despite facing significant hurdles, including injuries and inconsistency.
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Lewis has shown flashes of brilliance at the major league level, making significant impacts both offensively and defensively. However, two ACL tears over the last three seasons have hampered his ability to contribute consistently. In 79 career games, he has hit .314/.367/.589 (.956) with a 162 OPS+, 13 doubles, and 22 home runs—more home runs in his first 80 games than any other player in Twins/Senators history. In 2023, he set the Twins’ single-season record with four grand slams and helped the club win their first playoff series in two decades. His popularity is growing, as evidenced by the increasing number of Lewis jerseys at Target Field.
The true measure of the Twins’ decision also involves examining the players they passed over.
Hunter Greene, selected immediately after Lewis by the Cincinnati Reds, impressed scouts with his triple-digit fastball and secondary pitches. However, injuries have impeded his development, reflecting the inherent risk of investing in high school pitchers. Greene has amassed the second most rWAR (5.2) among 2017 first-round picks, behind only Boston’s Tanner Houck (8.7 rWAR), who was not considered for the top pick. While Greene’s potential is undeniable, his injury-riddled path highlights the draft’s uncertainties.
Brendan McKay, a two-way player drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays, had exceptional skills on the mound and at the plate. However, his journey has been marred by injuries, questioning the viability of excelling in both roles at the highest level. McKay has been limited to 13 major league appearances and is currently sidelined in the minors with multiple injuries, including a UCL sprain. Given these challenges, the Twins’ decision to pass on McKay seems prudent.
Other notable selections included MacKenzie Gore (San Diego Padres) and Kyle Wright (Atlanta Braves). Both pitchers have had mixed results. Gore, traded to the Nationals, has posted a 4.20 ERA in 56 big-league appearances. Wright, who led MLB with 21 wins in 2022, has had limited major league time and missed the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery.
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In retrospect, the Twins’ choice to draft Lewis appears justified, especially if he can overcome his injury history. Although he has not fully reached the heights expected of a number one overall pick, his potential remains high. The challenges he has faced are common for young prospects, and the risks associated with drafting pitchers underscore the rationale behind selecting a position player with Lewis’s skills.
However, the final verdict on the Twins’ decision is still pending. Baseball requires patience, and the journey from draft day to stardom is unpredictable. As Lewis continues his development and his fellow draftees carve their paths, time will tell if the Twins made the right choice. For now, Lewis’s promise offers hope to the franchise and its fans.
Was Lewis the correct choice? Should the Twins have drafted one of the top pitchers available? Leave a COMMENT and join the discussion.
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