Joe Ryan Emerging as the Pitcher Minnesota Needed
The Minnesota Twins faced a significant challenge in their rotation this offseason. With Sonny Gray leaving via free agency and the team unable to secure a top-tier replacement, the Twins were left searching for a standout pitcher. Early indications suggest they may have found their answer in Joe Ryan.
Paying big money for an aging Sonny Gray over multiple years was never a realistic option for Minnesota. Even if ownership had increased the budget, Derek Falvey would still have needed to search for viable options, including Anthony DeSclafani from the scrap heap. The rotation required Pablo Lopez to reach a new level, Bailey Ober to step up, and Joe Ryan to excel. While two-thirds of these goals have been met, it’s Ryan’s performance that has been the most surprising and impactful.
The trade that brought Ryan from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Nelson Cruz has turned out to be a major coup for the Twins. Initially a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher last year, Ryan is now flirting with Cy Young candidacy. His 3.15 ERA might not be otherworldly, but his 2.78 xERA and 3.02 FIP suggest otherwise. His command has improved, yielding the lowest walk rate of his career. Despite a history of being prone to home runs, his current rate of 1.1 per nine innings is his best yet, and his hits per nine innings (H/9) rate is impressive. With a WHIP below 1.00, Ryan is putting it all together.
Ryan’s ability to keep batters off balance has been key this season. His 28% hard-hit rate is a career low, and he’s inducing more ground balls than ever. These results are partly due to a revised pitch mix. Known for his high-spin fastball, he now throws it just 46.5% of the time, a career low. He has introduced a cutter sparingly, significantly increased his use of the changeup, and is utilizing his slider more frequently.
Opposing batters have had to adapt to Ryan’s new approach, giving him the upper hand. With only two starts allowing four runs, he consistently delivers quality outings, maintaining a high strikeout rate.
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Head Coach Rocco Baldelli will likely see the overall effectiveness of his starters shift as the season progresses. While Pablo Lopez may improve from his current rut, and Simeon Woods Richardson might face some regression, Chris Paddack has performed well relative to expectations. This makes Ober and Ryan crucial to the team’s success.
If Ryan continues at this level, both he and the Twins stand to gain significantly. Leading all Minnesota pitchers with a 1.5 fWAR, he ranks 14th across baseball. This is impressive not only for someone acquired for a 40-year-old designated hitter but also for a starter aiming to join the sport’s elite.
The addition of another experienced pitcher, as confirmed by Baldelli, could further bolster the Twins’ rotation, enhancing their chances of making a deep playoff run.
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