Can Elly Bring Back the 100-Steal Season?
Reds phenom is turning back the clock to the hard-charging 1980s.
As recently as 2022, the idea of a player challenging the long-abandoned 100-stolen base mark felt about as fanciful as humans walking on the surface of Jupiter. But then, the out-of-this-world talent that is Elly De La Cruz made his MLB debut in 2023.
Now, more than a quarter of the way into the season, the electrifying Reds shortstop is on pace to become the fifth player in the Modern Era (since 1900), and the first since Vince Coleman in 1987, to steal 100 or more bases. With 30 steals, De La Cruz leads the league by a double-digit margin and has more steals than over half of MLB teams combined. While De La Cruz’s extraordinary talent isn’t the only factor driving this potential milestone (more on that shortly), he seems poised to rise to the occasion.
A long season lies ahead, filled with potential obstacles for the 22-year-old phenom. However, watching De La Cruz dominate a game — as he did with a four-hit, four-steal performance Thursday night at Dodger Stadium — makes the prospect of him becoming MLB’s next triple-digit base thief seem quite realistic.
Setting the Stage
From 2018-22, no player even managed a 50-steal season. In 2022, the Marlins’ Jon Berti led MLB with just 41 steals, the lowest leading total since 1963. The game’s strategy no longer favored taking risks on the basepaths.
Then, two things happened. First, MLB introduced a suite of rule changes ahead of the 2023 season, making it easier for runners to steal. This included the pitch timer and restrictions on pitcher disengagements (pickoff attempts and step-offs).
Second, a wave of young, ultra-athletic talent began to take advantage of these changes. Steals were up significantly, with six players swiping 40 or more bases — the most since 2013. Leading the way were Ronald Acuña Jr. (73), Esteury Ruiz (67), and Corbin Carroll (54). MLB saw its first 50- or 60-base stealers since 2017 and its first 70-base stealer since 2009.
MLB’s 100-SB Club
Nobody has stolen 80 bases since 1988, when Coleman (81) and Rickey Henderson (93) both did it. Coleman’s 109 steals in 1987 marked the last triple-digit SB season in MLB.
- Vince Coleman: 3 seasons (1985-87 STL)
- Rickey Henderson: 3 seasons (1980, ’82-83 OAK)
- Lou Brock: 1 season (1974 STL)
- Maury Wills: 1 season (1962 LAD)
Not surprisingly, these players are among the most prolific base stealers of all time.
De La Cruz’s Chase for History
De La Cruz, with 30 steals in the Reds’ first 47 games, is on a 103-steal pace over 162 games. When he reached the 30-steal mark on Thursday, it was only the eighth time since 1901 that a player did so within his team’s first 44 games. Three of the previous seven achieved triple-digit totals.
“I don’t think about that,” De La Cruz said about the 100-steal pace. “I just go out there and have fun, play hard every day. I don’t think about numbers.”
While De La Cruz may not think about the numbers, we can. Here are five reasons why he might just reach the 100-steal mark:
- Blazing Speed: De La Cruz ranks fifth in MLB in average sprint speed (29.9 ft/sec) and bolts (21). His speed is obvious on the basepaths and impresses teammates and opponents alike.
- Efficiency: De La Cruz has an 85.7% success rate this year (30 for 35) and 83.3% for his career, well above the 75% break-even point.
- Maximizing Opportunities: De La Cruz attempts a steal in 81% of his stolen base opportunities, more than 11 times the league-average rate. With more opportunities, his steal count could increase significantly.
- Aggressive Base Running: De La Cruz steals second and third with equal fervor, leading MLB with 12 steals of third base this season.
- On Track: De La Cruz is ahead of the pace set by some of the previous 100-steal season players, making his quest for 100 steals a realistic possibility.
While challenges remain, De La Cruz’s combination of skill and daring has made the 100-steal season feel attainable again. Now, we all get to sit back and enjoy the show.
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