Forecasting the sack prowess of college standouts transitioning into the NFL often yields both predictable and unexpected outcomes. Such is the scenario with the crop of edge rushers slated for the 2024 NFL draft. The frontrunners, according to consensus, also happen to be the cream of the crop in their position.
My proprietary SackSEER projection system, designed to anticipate a player’s sack production over their initial five seasons in the NFL, aligns closely with the rankings put forth by Scouts Inc. Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Laiatu Latu secure the top three spots in both the SackSEER projections and Scouts Inc.’s draft evaluations. However, a deeper dive into the rankings reveals some intriguing deviations between SackSEER and the conventional scouting assessments.
Outlined below is a breakdown of the premier edge rusher prospects, as per their anticipated NFL success, accompanied by comparisons to past draft prospects and a sleeper pick worth keeping an eye on:
- Dallas Turner, Alabama SackSEER projection: 26.3 sacks over five NFL seasons Scouts Inc. ranking: No. 6 overall Comparable historical prospects: Von Miller, Vic Beasley
Turner emerges as the top prospect, particularly excelling in the Explosion Index, a composite measure derived from various combine drills. He showcased remarkable speed, leading all edge rushers with a blistering 40-yard dash time of 4.46 seconds, while also demonstrating impressive leaping ability with a 40.5-inch vertical jump and strong explosiveness with a 10-foot-7 broad jump. Moreover, Turner boasts the highest SRAM metric among his peers, amassing 10 sacks in his junior year and a notable 8.5 sacks as a freshman in 2021.
Despite these stellar attributes, Turner’s projection is tempered by his relatively low tally of passes defensed. Passes defensed serve as a reliable indicator of a player’s knack for disrupting passing plays by deflecting or intercepting the ball near the quarterback. Turner’s mere one pass defensed over three seasons raises some concerns in this regard.
In seeking comparable historical prospects, it proves challenging to find candidates akin to Turner in terms of weight, sack statistics, and combine performance while also exhibiting a scarcity in passes defensed. For instance, Von Miller notched five passes defensed in his junior year alongside an interception in his senior season, underscoring the significance of this aspect in evaluating edge rushers’ potential.
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