Disregarding FanGraphs’ notably low 2024 win total projections for the Phillies seems warranted after their impressive 90-win season in 2023. Despite minimal changes in the team’s lineup and rotation, the projections aren’t reflective of their potential success.
The Phillies’ offseason focused more on retaining key players like Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, with some strategic additions to bolster depth. Whit Merrifield, the primary free agent acquisition, adds versatility to the roster, while other prospects like Spencer Turnbull and David Dahl compete for roster spots.
FanGraphs predicts the Phillies to win 85 games in 2024, ranking them seventh alongside the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles. The projection suggests a downturn for the NL East, with most teams expected to regress, despite being one of the strongest divisions.
The total Injured List time for every MLB team in 2023 pic.twitter.com/2HtSBm6c6T
— BrooksGate (@Brooks_Gate) February 24, 2024
The league as a whole appears tighter in competition, with FanGraphs projecting only a 33-game difference between the top and bottom teams, significantly closer than the previous season. However, the Phillies’ projected loss of five wins seems unjustified given the team’s stability.
While concerns about potential regression due to age or injuries exist, there’s also room for optimism. Bryce Harper’s delayed start in 2023 and underperformance from key players like Trea Turner hint at untapped potential. Young talents like Johan Rojas and Alec Bohm show promise for improvement.
Despite competitive moves by teams like the Braves and Dodgers, projections underestimate the Phillies’ ability to maintain their success. FanGraphs’ cautious approach leans towards expecting regression from older players without accounting for potential growth among the younger roster members.
Philly fans show support for Trea Turner with a standing ovation.
Greatest fans in the world. pic.twitter.com/SaOObTVnJv
— Barstool Philly (@BarstoolPhilly) August 4, 2023
Considering betting odds placing the Phillies’ win total between 89 and 90.5, there’s a consensus that the team is capable of surpassing FanGraphs’ projection. Regardless of the challenges ahead, betting on the Phillies to exceed 85 wins seems like a safe bet for the 2024 season.
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