The crucial victory by the Memphis Grizzlies against the Washington Wizards has brought the Toronto Raptors within close range of a significant position. This win has narrowed the gap to just half a game from securing the sixth-worst record in the NBA.
The Raptors could potentially eliminate this difference with a win against the Detroit Pistons. Despite initial intentions not to tank this season after the trade deadline, circumstances have shifted. With Scottie Barnes likely out for the remainder of the season due to hand surgery, the Raptors find themselves in a challenging position.
They have lost four consecutive games and may be missing key players against the Pistons. Jakob Poeltl, RJ Barrett, and Barnes are sidelined, while Immanuel Quickley and Gary Trent Jr. are uncertain to play.
Achieving the sixth-worst record would provide the Raptors with a 45.8% chance of retaining their top-six protected pick, translating to a 37.2% probability of securing a top-four pick and an 8.6% chance of obtaining the sixth pick.
If tied with another team, a coin toss would determine the better lottery odds. Falling to the seventh-worst position would decrease the chances of keeping the pick to 32%. The Raptors owe this pick to San Antonio from last year’s Poeltl deal, and failure to convey it this year would result in conveying it as a top-six protected pick in either 2026 or 2027.
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