As the NFL season reaches its final stretch, the Houston Texans find themselves in a precarious position, sitting in the eighth seed in the AFC after 15 games. While their current standing is a testament to the coaching, drafting, and team culture, the Texans are determined not to miss out on the playoffs given the commendable season they’ve had so far.

The Texans share an 8-7 record with AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts and two AFC North teams, the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers. Securing a playoff spot in the competitive AFC requires them to break into the top seven teams. In the upcoming crucial matchups, the Texans face the Tennessee Titans at home and the Colts in Indianapolis during Week 18.

ESPN’s Football Power Index indicates that Houston has a 39% chance of making the playoffs, positioning them as the eighth team in the AFC. This standing is due to their head-to-head victory over the Steelers, placing them ahead of the Bengals.

Taking a closer look at the New York Times Interactive Playoff Simulator, it reveals that Houston holds a 34% chance of extending their season. The simulator allows users to predict individual game outcomes and assess their impact on a team’s playoff probability.

If the Texans defeat the Titans but lose to the Colts, there’s an 11% chance of making the playoffs. Conversely, if they lose to the Titans but beat the Colts, their chances rise to 30%. Winning both games guarantees a 100% chance of making the playoffs, with a 60% chance of hosting a Wild Card game.

Key external games, such as the Panthers facing the Jaguars, play a significant role in Houston’s playoff possibilities. A Panthers victory would boost the Texans’ chances by 10%. The Week 18 matchup between the Jaguars and Titans also holds immense importance, as a Jaguars loss could propel Houston into the playoffs.

The Jaguars’ schedule includes a game against the Carolina Panthers and a critical matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Meanwhile, the Colts face the Las Vegas Raiders before their showdown with the Texans.

If the Texans manage to win their remaining games, they secure a playoff spot, and if the Jaguars lose either of their games, Houston will host a playoff game at NRG. Even with one loss to their AFC South rivals, the Texans still have an outside chance (11%-30%) of making the playoffs. Notably, a victory over the Colts would virtually eliminate them from the playoff picture.

While the Texans are currently outside the playoff bracket, they hold the key to their destiny. The mantra “win and you’re in” encapsulates their path to the playoffs, marking a significant opportunity for their first postseason appearance since 2019.