The headline might seem perplexing at first glance, considering Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner recently netted two goals each in a 7-3 triumph over the New York Rangers. However, the issue lies beyond the scoresheet. Offensively, both players continue to deliver, with Matthews a frontrunner for the Rocket Richard trophy after reaching 20 goals, accumulating 21 goals and 32 points in 26 games. Marner maintains a point-per-game pace with 11 goals and 29 points in the same period. Yet, beneath the surface, concerns arise as their possession statistics paint a less rosy picture.
Historically, Matthews and Marner have excelled in possession, with Matthews holding a 60.48% 5v5 expected goal share from 2020-21 to 2022-23, and Marner ranking ninth at 58.87% in the same period. However, this season, Matthews has dipped to a 51.82% 5v5 xG share, while Marner’s performance has been notably subpar at 46.17%. Despite their offensive contributions, the expectation is for star players, particularly those with hefty salaries exceeding $10 million, to dominate their minutes consistently.
Comparisons within the team exacerbate the concern. Teammates John Tavares and William Nylander boast superior xG shares of 56.03% and 55.75%, respectively, emphasizing the struggles of Matthews and Marner this season. The investigation delves into potential factors, including linemates, but no significant correlation emerges. Even adjusting for linemates, Matthews and Marner fail to maintain the dominance seen in previous seasons.
Their most common linemates, Tavares and Nylander, are adversely affected when paired with Matthews and Marner, indicating a broader issue with the duo’s performance. Interestingly, even when deployed with each other, Matthews, Marner, and defenseman Morgan Rielly showcase a commendable 56.02% xG share, highlighting a bright spot amidst their struggles.
Analyzing their play away from certain linemates doesn’t yield a clear solution. The crux of the matter is that, irrespective of linemates, Matthews consistently performs around a 50-51% xG share, falling short of the 55-60% levels seen in previous seasons. Marner, similarly, consistently hovers around a 46-47% xG share, deviating from his previous high standards.
A Leafs stats thing I'm trying to figure out:
1st in slot shots, inner slot shots, slot passes. 25th in OZ possession time. 25th! (Last yr 6th)
1st in rush chances, 3rd in cycle chances, 17th in forecheck chances. (Last yr 4th)
No OZP time, little forecheck, why so one-and-done?— Justin Bourne (@jtbourne) December 11, 2023
Advanced metrics, such as Evolving Hockey’s Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus, affirm these concerns, isolating Matthews and Marner’s play from external factors. This season, their play-driving performance appears suboptimal compared to previous years.
The article concludes by acknowledging the difficulty in pinpointing the exact cause behind this shift in performance. Possible explanations range from a small sample size and a potential rough stretch to undisclosed injuries or off-ice issues. The article highlights that Matthews and Marner, who have typically been among the league’s top play-drivers, are experiencing an unusual downturn, prompting speculation about the root cause of this unexpected change in their on-ice performance.
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